Ron Paul Rising – NYTimes.com

14 Dec

In every post-Thanksgiving poll but one, Paul has been neck and neck for second place in Iowa. In most of them, he has lagged well behind the soaring speaker, coming in just below 20 percent while Gingrich hovers around 30. But a new Iowa survey, from Public Policy Polling, shows Gingrich leading Paul by just a single point, 22 percent to 21.

Moreover, the caucuses are not won by opinion polls alone. They’re won by the politician who can pack Iowa’s churches, libraries and community centers at 7 p.m. exactly on a frigid January Tuesday, and whose supporters won’t suddenly decide to back a different candidate during an hour’s worth of jawing, dealing and very public voting.

That’s how Howard Dean ended up losing Iowa by 19 points in 2004, even though last-minute polls showed him neck and neck with John Kerry and John Edwards….

Ron Paul isn’t going to take 37.6 percent of the caucus vote, as Kerry did in 2004. But he has a better organization in Iowa than Gingrich and inspires more enthusiasm than Romney, making it perfectly possible that he could eke out a narrow victory.

via Ron Paul Rising – NYTimes.com.

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