Tag Archives: 2012 presidential race

Ron Paul Gaining Momentum From Niche Voters in Iowa Polls – NYTimes.com

19 Nov

In a year when the Republican field is unusually fractured, with front-runners coming around as often as carousel ponies, Mr. Paul’s ability to mobilize niche groups like home-schoolers may make a big difference. His campaign, which has won a number of straw polls and is picking up momentum, has demonstrated its ability to organize and mobilize supporters, which is particularly relevant in Iowa, where relatively small numbers can tip the scales in the caucuses. …

But now, thanks to the best organized grass-roots campaign in Iowa and heavy spending on television advertisements that portray him as consistent while other Republicans have flip-flopped, Mr. Paul is breaking through that ceiling, giving rise to a once far-fetched scenario — that he might win the state’s caucuses on Jan. 3.

“I’m buying Ron Paul today,” said Craig Robinson, a former political director for the Republican Party of Iowa, who on Wednesday sent a Twitter message saying, “Ron Paul’s Iowa Campaign Office was abuzz at 8 p.m. tonight when I drove by on my way to the bank. Impressive.”

Two state polls this week show him in a statistical tie for first. One, released Monday by Bloomberg News, showed Mr. Paul winning 19 percent of likely Republican caucus voters, within the margin of error with Herman Cain, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

via Ron Paul Gaining Momentum From Niche Voters in Iowa Polls – NYTimes.com.

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The GOP’s third party nightmare scenario – Opening Shot – Salon.com

17 Nov

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week showed the libertarian congressman receiving 18 percent of the vote in a race against Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — a number that came mainly at Romney’s expense. In a two-way trial heat, Obama led Romney by six points, 49 to 43 percent. But that margin doubled when Paul was tossed in, with Obama opening a 44 to 32 advantage over Romney. Notably, Paul fared much better than another potential third party candidate, Michael Bloomberg, who netted only 13 percent.

via The GOP’s third party nightmare scenario – Opening Shot – Salon.com.

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Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election – NYTimes.com

6 Nov

Three factors are considered:

• The first factor, Americans’ performance reviews of Obama, can be measured through his approval ratings.
• The second factor, economic performance, can be measured through statistics like G.D.P.
• The third factor — essentially, the ideological positioning of the Republican candidate — is sometimes thought of as an “intangible.” But it can be measured too, and it matters a great deal.

Four scenarios: 2 Obama vs. Romney, 2 Obama vs. Perry; for each paring, one where the economy stagnates, one where it’s improving. If the economy is improving, Obama wins against each, otherwise he loses. But the loss against Perry is worse.

Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.

With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.

via Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election – NYTimes.com.

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Ron Has the Recipe

8 Sep

by Charlie Keil

Ron Has the Recipe

Basically Ron Paul has the recipe: drop fascism-militarism-empire and Wall St. bankster capitalism, shrink the Fed gov’t and its taxation without representation (I’m refusing to pay fed taxes until the wars stop), return “entitlements” (health/education/welfare) back to the states, LOCALITIES, individuals, where problems can be solved by face to face communication, genuine democracy, libertarian sociability (or Bernard Shaw’s “sociable socialism”) the old-fashioned way.

The federal government can not give you/us anything that it hasn’t taken away from you/us first!

I’d keep Social Security separate and working just fine—taking money from us when we’re working to keep us secure when we’re old—if it’s not “borrowed” from to do wars, etc. And if Medicare can be reformed to keep costs down it would be wonderful to extend it to children in their first 5 years of life, get them off to a healthy start.

All questions become practical and solvable at human scale, i.e. locally, in “transition” to sustainability. Paul’s principles and non-programs might get us there in time to save the speciation. That’s my hope, and “yes we can” for today anyway.

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An interesting take on Ron Paul

26 Apr

over at Salon:

A passionate, not insignificant chunk of the Republican base is receptive to him and his message. But most of the conservative establishment is openly hostile to him, partly because of his adamantly non-interventionist foreign policy views and partly because he can be so easily painted as a fringe figure. Elite conservative opinion-shapers long ago succeeded in marginalizing Paul within the GOP. This point was driven home at CPAC the past two years. Each time, Paul won the annual presidential straw poll (with well under 50 percent of the vote), setting off jubilant cheers from his supporters — and angry boos from just about everyone else in the room.

He’s sure to shake up the Republican presidential race and give ’em something to think about on their wasteful and destructive foreign policy views.

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